The prospect of talks with the Taliban

The Obama "wave" of two years ago, bringing the U.S. contingent more than 100,000 soldiers were supposed to rescue the situation. He succeeded in part. Western troops now control a swath of southern Afghanistan more than they have done for years, Taliban violence is receding. However, the struggle has moved to the mountains to the east, along the border with Pakistan's tribal belt.

The area is controlled by the notorious Haqqani network - the clan-based jihadi tribal North Waziristan, and recently the subject of friction between the U.S. and the Pakistani military. U.S. intelligence accuses Pakistan's ISI of supporting the Haqqanis, who carried out the daring attack of September 13 U.S. embassy. The Pakistanis say they do not know what the U.S. want - to make peace with the rebels, or fight them.

Amid the confusion, the only sure thing is that, in late 2014, the U.S. and Britain have withdrawn most of its troops. Talk about a "final phase" may be premature, officials reported that between 10,000 and 20,000 U.S. troops are left behind to support the Karzai government.

But can it survive? The prospect of talks with the Taliban has revived old ethnic tensions, serious talk of civil war runs quietly in the corridors of diplomacy. Karzai said he would regularly sit down with Taliban leaders, as it once did 10 years ago. The question now is whether that would solve the conflict in Afghanistan, or push it to a new phase.